Columbia, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

564
FXUS62 KCAE 270724
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
324 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few stronger thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and
evening as an upper low lingers near the forecast area. Typical
summertime weather expected this weekend and into early next
week with near to slightly above normal temperatures and daily
shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
- Slightly above normal temperatures

Morning analysis shows upper low has migrated into southern GA
and northern FL with the upper ridge around it extending from
the mid Atlantic through the TN Valley to the western Gulf
Coast. Little change in the overall pattern with near normal
atmospheric moisture in place with PWATs around 1.5-1.7 inches
and dewpoints expected in the upper 60s. Some weak upper forcing
associated with the upper low should support isolated to
scattered afternoon convection, which likely will favor
initiation along the sea breeze to our east and the higher
terrain and a surface trough to our west. General storm motion
will continue to be from the east to southeast.

Moderate instability is forecast with CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
but wind shear remains relatively weak so widespread organized
convection is not expected. DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg and a
strong inverted V signature will support a damaging wind threat
from the strongest storms that develop. Max temperatures again
expected to be in the lower to mid 90s today. SPC has the
western part of the forecast area in a marginal outlook for
severe weather. Tonight, some convective debris clouds may
linger through midnight but then should clear out with near
normal lows expected in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Typical summertime pattern with scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms and seasonably hot conditions.

The upper low will continue to weaken this weekend as its absorbed
into the broader flow. As this upper low lifts northward, it will
bring with it increased moisture with the HREF mean indicating PWATs
will rise to above 1.8 inches across much of the area. In addition,
lift will be provided by this low along with convergence along a
surface trough over the forecast area. Thunderstorm coverage will
likely be higher on Saturday as a result, with scattered convection
during the afternoon and evening as HREF probabilities of sbCAPE
exceeding 2000 J/kg are between 40 to 60%.

Similar conditions expected Sunday, although as the upper low
becomes diffuse, forcing may be a bit more limited. As a result,
scattered diurnally driven convection typical of summer is likely.
Forecast soundings generally indicate the severe threat for both
Saturday and Sunday will be low, although an isolated severe storm
remains possible. Blended guidance indicates highs a degree or two
above average with seasonable humidity which will lead to triple
digit heat indices which is (unfortunately) typical for this time of
year. Lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Near average temperatures and typical summer diurnal
  convection expected into the early week.

- A possible cold front nears the region toward the mid-week,
bringing more rain/storm chances, though the severity of any storms
still needs to be ironed out.

Blended guidance shows limited spread in temperatures through the
extended period with relatively high confidence in near normal
temperatures. Ensemble means do indicate that upper troughing will
shift over the eastern CONUS by Tuesday which, along with
increases in moisture (GEFS indicates a 40-60% chance of PWATs
greater than 2 inches), will likely lead to more widespread
shower and thunderstorm coverage through midweek with potential
for increased forcing. While there are some indications that a
cold front will move through the area, this is generally not
climatologically favored so will have to continue to monitor
model trends which will affect temperature and precip forecasts
for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions through the forecast period outside of
possible thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Mostly clear skies across the area this morning with only some
higher clouds associated with the upper low across central GA.
A 20kt low level jet should help keep predawn fog chances to a
minimum with winds around 5 mph or less. Upper level low will
remain over GA today with scattered diurnal showers and
thunderstorms expected along the sea breeze and surface trough
but confidence is low in convection impacting terminals. Winds
pick up from the south around 5 to 10 mph by late morning
through the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy fog possible each night.
Diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms expected Saturday and
Sunday. A front could approach the Southeast next week leading
to increased thunderstorm chances.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$